Climate change will increase civil conflicts in Subsaharan Africa

The issue of climate change and it's impact on the lives and livelihood of Nigerians is not going away any time soon.  Climate change is an established fact globally.  The effect of climate change on our agricultural products especially grains has been reported on this blog (here and here).  Our weather is not what it used to be.  There were times we look forward to "seven-days" rainfall but it seems we no longer see it.  The harshest of harmattan usually occurs late December but it is common to observe it mid-January these days.  That is climate change.  A report published in May 2017 is suggesting that not only will our maize production be reduced, the number of civil conflicts will increase!

Jun (2017) obtained Maize production data from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and temperature data from both the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).  The trend in all the data use is shown in the figure below.  The analysis was conducted in two phases.  First, maize production was considered to be determined by maize-growing season temperature, the set of country-specific variables, the country fixed effect, the time trend, annual mean temperature and its squared term.      Civil conflicts was then evaluated for when the maize yield was high and compared to when it was low due to temperature. T¯ 

Trends on maize yield, civil conflict incidence, maize-growing season temperature, and annual mean temperature. a and b show annual maize yield and civil conflict incidence, respectively. c shows mean temperature in maize-growing season (solid) and annual mean temperature (dash) in our historical sample. d extends information in c to year 2100 by using mean of the 18 CMIP5 climate model outputs in the period of 2006–2100 (Jun, 2017)

The author did the analysis and the result is alarming.  The author specifically found that the increase in temperature between 1979 and 2012 caused a decrease in maize production.  This is said to cause an increase in civil conflicts.  Future projections indicate that civil conflicts will increase in subsaharan Africa by 33% between 2031 and 2050 and by 100% by 2081 - 3010 compared to what we have in 1981 - 2000. 

Hmm.  We need to start talking to ourselves o!  The impact of climate change on our lives is becoming more alarming.  There is the urgent need to implement mitigation strategies if we do not want to be caught unawares.  What are the ways out?  We need to cut our waste production, increase awareness about our environment, actively and consciously begin to plant trees, recycle our waste, reduce emissions amongst other steps.

References

(1) Jun T. (2017)  "Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa" Climate Change 142(1-2):183 - 197.

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Lagos: Any respite from the floods?

Any story about Nigeria without Lagos is incomplete.  Lagos has a significant role in the past and future of the country.  it is regarded as the commercial nerve centre of the country.  However, the beautiful city of Lagos is not without her own peculiar challenges.  The population of Lagos is on the increase, no thanks to the allure of "gold on the street" sold to rural dwellers.  This growing population is impacting on the existing infrastructure within the city.  In recent times, another challenge is coming to light - flooding.  Being a coastal city, Lagos is prone to heavy rainfall.   Heavy rainfall coupled with improper planning and waste disposal, flooding is becoming pronounced in different parts of the State.  Will the flooding stop any time soon?

Not according to Prof. Abiodun and his colleagues.  According to their report "A decrease in annual precipitation is projected over Cape Town, Maputo and Port Said, whilst an increase is projected over Lagos, where the water surplus from the more extreme precipitation events exceeds the deficit from the less wet days" (Abiodun et al, 2017).  How was this conclusion reached?  The authors used two future climate scenarion (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)  to compute moderate extreme events.  The moderate extreme events computed include the total number of days for which rainfall is greater than 1mm, the total number of days in a year when the rainfall on a given day is above 20 mm and twelve other indices.  This analysis was done for four coastal African cities - Cape Town, Maputo, Port Said and Lagos.  The authors found that the number of wet days in a year in Lagos will reduce but the total precipitation will increase.  This means we will be having fewer rainfall but those rains will be very heavy.  An implication of this is the increase in number of dry days.  This will affect agricultural products at planting and harvesting.  It also means we are going to have hotter days.  Lagos was found to be an exception to most of these results.  

Projected percentage changes in extreme precipitation indices over the four cities (a Cape Town, b Maputo, c Lagos and d Port Said) in the two future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes are calculated with reference to the past climate (1986–2005) and are averaged over the neighbourhood of the city(Abiodun et al, 2017)

What can Lagos State do about these results?  While it can be argued that not much is going on in terms of agriculture in Lagos, the little agriculture we can lay claim to is under threat.  Will the current structural and environmental plan be viable in the future under higher flood? There is no doubt that the Lagos State government has a lot to do in terms of planning.  Recent land reclamation activities along the coastal areas should be reconsidered in light of these results.

Reference

Abiodun, B.J., Adegoke, J., Abatan, A.A. et al. Climatic Change (2017) 143: 399. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2001-5
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Where is my thesis?

For those who have gone through one or two stages of the Nigerian higher educational system, this question will not be strange.  After four or five years of study as an undergraduate, a student is expected to carry out an independent study in his/her field of study.  It is a rigorous, mentally tasking, time consuming and financially demanding task for every student.   Every student is expected to make four copies of the completed thesis - one for the student, one for the supervisor, one for the Department and the last for the University library (this might vary in some institutions).  The researches reported in this theses are supposedly carried out to solve or address specific societal problems.  It is a requirement for graduation from any higher institution in the country.

Let us put this into context. Assuming there are 20 universities in Nigeria.  Also assuming a total of 20 departments each with 50 students are in all the 20 universities.  Based on this assumptions, there are 20,000 thesis being submitted by undergraduates every year.   This implies that there exists 20,000 reports generated annually that directly (or indirectly) addresses various problems in our society.  Where are these theses?  To access any of these theses, you either know the student or the supervisor or apply to the Department or University library.  Yes, currently you cannot sit in your house and access any thesis within the country (except a few universities).

Why is it like this?  Let me give an unofficial explanation.  All thesis (undergraduate and postgraduate) are proprietary materials for the University.  I do not know of any other reason why theses are not online (if you know, kindly provide and i will update this article).  Well, if Federal and State institutions are funded by tax payers money, are the tax payers not entitled to the reports?  Do the institutions refund the students for the expenses incurred during the research work?  Did the student graduate without paying any school fees?  Is the claim to thesis as proprietary works actually valid? 

In my own opinion, academic theses should be readily available online in a variety of format.  One, it will reduce the rate of plagiarism among students as previous theses will be captured online.  Two, the availability of theses online will afford access by policy makers, industry experts and the general public for implementation.  Three, it is in line with best and emerging global trend in education.  Four, it serves as a means of preservation when hard copies of the theses are disposed or recycled (do we recycle?).  Five, it can generate income for the institution (http://ethos.bl.uk/Home.do). Six, will supervisors allow students go away with shoddy research work if their names will be appended to the online work? Methinks it will improve quality of research at all stages.

Where is your thesis?

 

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No good news for African crops under climate change

Climate change came into global focus again as the world, without the United States of America, affirm their readiness to combat it's effect on planet earth.   The effect of climate change will be felt in different dimensions across different countries.  It is going to affect tourism, communication, agriculture, health and economy.  World leaders considered the effect of climate change far greater than any singular economy or cross border politics.  Differences were put aside as all signed the agreement.  I am glad Nigeria signed that agreement.

The effect of climate change has been discussed on this blog under the topic "Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050".   There is the need to revisit this issue as a new research by Challinor and his team has again brought to fore the dangers climate change poses to our agricultural production.  In their research, Challinor et al (2016) examined the implication of global warming on the breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties using five different climate forecast over Africa.  The authors investigated the point at which the time from germination to maturity become significantly different from what we have currently now.  From their results, the impact of heat stress was significant.  From Figure 1, the RCP 8.5 data predicts that the effect is upon us faster than we think.

Time at which the climate change signal for crop duration is detected. The specified year refers to the midpoint of the 20-year period in which the median crop duration falls below the 25th quantile of the baseline period (1995–2014). Grey cells indicate that the crop duration remains within the 25th–75th quantile until at least 2038—the latest possible delivery date for a BDA cycle beginning in 2004 (see Table 1).

Our focus as an agrarian nation has to move from the challenges of bad roads, access to markets, fertilizers, irrigation that has been plaguing us for ages into developing seeds and methods that will beat the effect of climate change. Any strategic plan for sustainable agriculture in Nigeria that does not consider climate adaptation strategies such as novel seeds cannot stand the test of time.  The best time to start the process is now!

References

[1] A. J. Challinor, A.-K. Koehler, J. Ramirez-Villegas, S. Whitfield, and B. Das, “Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 954–958, 2016.

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Beyond the dangers of EM waves to humans

Do not put mobile phones in your pockets, the radiation can affect your organs!  

Do not use mobile phones near gas stations or gas stoves, it can cause fire hazard!! 

These and other warnings have been spreading through social media in recent times.  In light of growing use of mobile devices and other gadgets that uses electromagnetic (EM) waves, these warnings tend to be disturbing.   While there is no general consensus in the scientific community on the effect of mobile phones on humans, we need to look beyond ourselves to other animals that can and could be affected by their use.  

Ogunjo et al (2013) took up this challenge and investigated the effect of electromagnetic waves on earthworms.   Earthworms have been reported to play an important role in our ecology (Sarojini, 2007).  Their importance can be seen in the aeration of the soil and influencing soil fertility through decay of leaves.  Hence, any threat to their existence affects us all.

In the study by Ogunjo et al (2013),  studied the effect of two different frequencies (42 kHz and 36 kHz) on earthworms over a period of nine (9) days.  The masses of the earthworms were monitored throughout the experiment.    Furthermore, strong negative correlation and rate of decrease in mass was reported for earthworms under the influence of electromagnetic waves which did not reflect in the control experiment.

From the experiment, the earthworms show a significant reduction in mass for the period under investigation at both frequencies.  Can this be true?  Yes, a control experiment conducted under the same environment but without the frequencies shows an increase in mass of the earthworms!  There is the urgent need for scientists to take this study further.  Frequencies used in this study was low, what will be the effect of higher frequencies on earthworms?  Ants and other smaller animals of significant economic importance needs to be studied also.  Can these method be used to control or eradicate dangerous animals and pests?  Results from these advanced studies should guide relevant organizations and government bodies in making regulations that will safe guard the lives and livelihoods of citizens.

Full text of the paper can be found here

References

Ogunjo S. T., Williams A. O., Egbuonu F . O., Adedayo K. D., (2013) “Effects of electromagnetic field on mass of earthworms.”  Envirotropica, 10, 37 – 44, August, 2013

Sarojini T.R. (2007). Modern Biology for Senior Secondary Schools. Africana First
Publisher, Onitsha, Nigeria. 2007.
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Women in STEM: An Endangered Specie in Nigeria

There is a dearth of in-depth data when it comes to matters of women in Nigeria.  Where and when the data is available, it does not portray a beautiful picture.     According to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics [1], the number of male students enrolled in formal education increased from 20 million students in 2010 to over 30 million (an increase of about 11 million) while the number of female students enrolled in formal education remained in the 5 million range with a marginal increase of 4.13%.    The number of these female students enrolled in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) according to JAMB data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics is not encouraging.  From the report, the number of female students enrolled in the Faculties of Science and Engineering in Universities across the country is very low when compared to the number of their male counterparts in the same faculties [2].  Female students, from the same report, seems to register for non-STEM courses.  The situation does not change in the choice of career after graduation.  Presenting the Country's report to the 5th International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP) conference in Waterloo, Canada, Prof.(Mrs.) Fuwape, noted an increase in the number of women enrolled in Physics over the years.  However, over a seven year period, the percentage of women enrolled in the course was below 25% [3].  Figure 1 shows the gender statistics in selected academic institutions across the country.

Fig 1: Statistics of some department of physics academic positions

Why do we have few women in STEM?  The challenges facing women in Nigeria are multifaceted.  There is the issue of religion which does not give mixing of gender in public settings.  Some societies see women as "limited/incapacitated", hence, the reluctance to educate young girls.  Williams J. C. [4] listed five biases pushing women out of STEM to include: Prove-it-again, Tightrope,  the maternal wall, tug of war and isolation bias.    There is also the general believe that certain STEM disciplines are in the male territory and difficult for ladies.  

What can be done to increase female participants in STEM?  The campaign to increase female participation in STEM should begin from the young minds.    Stakeholders in the education sector should look into some of our teaching methods and techniques that tends to favour male students.  There is no better time than now to address our methods in STEM subjects.  The mindset that classified some disciplines as difficult and strictly for male students can be addressed by regular interaction with the industry and professionals in the field.     

The role of advocacy organizations and relevant ministries in this issue cannot be overemphasized.  The Organization for Women in Science for the Developing World has been contributing towards reducing the gender gap in education through the introduction of various mentoring programmes, research grants, awards and fellowships for females in developing countries.  Also, the Nigerian Women in Physics has been organizing programmes to improve the participation of females in the field of Physics.   At the 39th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Institute of Physics, the Country head, Prof.(Mrs) I. A. Fuwape, highlighted some of the plans of the organization for increased female participation in the subject to include:

•  giving recognition to women who demonstrate outstanding scientific achievements
• organize programmes to popularize Physics among secondary school girls
• mentor more ladies and women into Physics in order to bridge the gap and encourage them to stay there.

However, the role the Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and the various state ministries of education and ministries in improving the number of girls coming into STEM cannot be established from their sites [5,6].

References

[1]    National Bureau of Statistics: Nigerian Formal Education Sector  - Summary Report  (2010 - 2012) http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/report/271

[2]      National Bureau of Statistics: JAMB admitted candidates by state and gender within Faculty   http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/report/517

[3]     Fuwape, I. A., Rabiu, A. B. and Ogunjo, S. T. (2015), Women in physics in Nigeria: Status, actions, and progress (2011–2014), AIP Conference Proceedings, 1697, 060034.  http://aip.scitation.org/doi/abs/10.1063/1.4937681

 [4]      William J. C.  The five biases pushing women out of STEM.  https://hbr.org/2015/03/the-5-biases-pushing-women-out-of-stem

[5]      http://www.womenaffairs.gov.ng/

[6]      http://wapa.lagosstate.gov.ng/

Is there an heightened radioactive risk in Kogi State?

You have heard of the "atomic bomb" and its powers.  It is the general believe that at inauguration, every president of the United State is given access to the nuclear codes that can "destroy" any country.  Well, that is not the only way we are exposed to radionuclides as humans .  We are also exposed to cosmic radiation and terrestrial radiation.  Terrestrial radiation have been reported to vary according to location, soil type and activities carried out at a particular location. 

What is this "nuclear" or "atomic" bomb?  There is this "football" we make as kids.  Our toy involves pieces of balloons together.  We always have a solid "ball" at the beginning but our "ball" begins to fall apart as it gets larger.    Elements with relatively number of small electrons are stable but as the number of electrons get larger, the elements become unstable.  There are elements that are naturally unstable such that they disintegrate on their own or when "stimulated".  These elements are called radioactive elements.  Radioactive elements are useful in several areas such as treatment of cancer, etc.   Exposure to radionuclides above recommended values can pose great danger to people living in that area.

Dr(Mrs) Usikalu and her collaborators, with support from the Centre for Atmospheric Research, CAR, National Space Research and Development Agency, undertook to study the radioactive risks in Kogi State, Nigeria.  They studied three (3) radionuclides ²³²Th, ²³⁸U and ⁴⁰K because they have long half lives.  Two hundred (200) soil samples were taken from different areas of the State, processed using international best standards and analyzed using an Hyper Pure Germanium detector. From their results, the authors reported that

The radiological parameters estimated for most of the locations compared well with world average values, except for Odogba-okaba, Salem University, Forest, Nepa, Gerugu, Niger Bridge, Igaliwu, Ijeke-ogane, Bagana, and Abegikolo villages, whose values exceeded the recommended limit.

To get an overview of the health implication of the results obtained, the effect of radiation on the sensitive body cells such as bone marrow, gonads, skin i.e. gonadal equivalent dose was computed.  It was observed that "nearly all the villages have AG values higher than the recommended limit, with highest value obtained in Igaliwu Omala area. The high concentration may be as a result of the presence of monazite in the area and exploitation of coal and limestone in the area. This could pose a threat to sensitive cells like gonads and bone marrow in the dwellers and workers in these areas."

Spatial maps of radiological parameters for Ajaokuta LGA

There is the urgent need for the Kogi State government, if the interest and well-being of the citizen is important to them, to check the mining activities in the area.  There is also the urgent need to investigate the radionuclide risks in food and water consumed by indigenes of the state. 

References

M. R. Usikalu, I. A. Fuwape, S. S. Jatto, O. F. Awe, A. B. Rabiu & J. A. Achuka (2017) Assessment of radiological parameters of soil in Kogi State, Nigeria. Environmental Forensics, 18:1, 1-14 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15275922.2016.1263898

Is Solar energy predictable?

If you start a journey from point A at time T₁ and get to point B at time T_n. We say the "system" is linear if the arrival time is a function of the start time e.g. If you start at T₁₊₁, you get there at time T_n+1 or generally, if you start at T_a+1 you arrive at T_n+a.    Not all journey are smooth, there might be delay due to traffic and other unforeseen circumstances.  Let's call the addition of all possible delay on the route d.  If you take off  at time T₁, your arrival time due to delay on the route will be T_n+d.   We refer to this "system" as a stochastic system.     However, if the arrival time cannot be predicted based on the take off time T₁ due to conditions around the starting conditions, we say the "system" is chaotic.  Long term prediction of chaotic system is not possible.  Chaos in this case does not mean random or disorder but sensitivity to initial starting conditions.

Chaos is aperiodic time-asymptotic behaviour in a deterministic system which exhibits sensitive dependence on initial conditions (http://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/329/lectures/node57.html).

 

Initially, studying chaos was limited to complicated differential equations but in recent times, natural phenomena has been investigated for chaos.   Many systems such as menstrual period (Derry and Derry, 2010), rainfall (Sivakumar, 2001), temperature (Fuwape et al, 2015), stock market (Fuwape and Ogunjo, 2013) have been found to be chaotic.  To investigate chaos, tools such as correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and other tools have been developed.  Is chaos good or bad?  This will be the subject of another post.  In light of current agitation for use of renewable energy instead of fossil fuels, there is the need to study the predictability of the proposed energy systems.  

Ogunjo, Adediji and Dada from the Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Akure investigated if solar radiation available at Akure, Southwestern Nigeria for a period of two years.   The researchers found that the solar radiation at Akure during the dry season is more chaotic than during the wet season.  This means that it is easier to predict the solar energy available in the location during the wet season than during the wet season of the year.  

Figure 1:  Phase space reconstruction of solar radiation data from Akure  (Source:  Ogunjo et al. 2014)

The Nigerian government is currently on a drive to provide off-grid power based on solar energy. From the results presented by the researchers, it is imperative that the chaotic nature of solar energy over Nigeria be investigated and taken into consideration before large scale deployment.  There is the need to further study the variation of incident solar radiation in different parts of the country for the most cost effective and reliable solar energy solution.  For instance, further studies will give insight into the feasibility of combining solar energy with wind or other forms of energy for better reliability.  Also, the possibility of solar panels that can track the rising and setting of the sun need to be investigated.

References

Derry, G., & Derry, P. (2010). Characterization of chaotic dynamics in the human menstrual cycle. Nonlinear Biomedical Physics, 4(1), 5. http://doi.org/10.1186/1753-4631-4-5

Fuwape, I. I. A., & Ogunjo, S. T. (2013). Investigating Chaos in the Nigerian Asset and Resource Management (ARM) Discovery Fund. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4(2), 129–140. article.

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo, · S T, Oluyamo, · S S, Rabiu, · A B,  (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x

Ogunjo, S. T., Adediji, A. T., & Dada, J. B. (2015). Investigating chaotic features in solar radiation over a tropical station using recurrence quantification analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1642-4

Sivakumar, B. (2001). Is a chaotic multi-fractal approach for rainfall possible? Hydrological Processes, 15(6), 943–955. http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.260

Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050

From your observations of the December-January weather over the years, do you think the harmattan is getting stronger, weaker or just the same?  If you can give an answer, then you have witnessed climate change!   According to IPCC, climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.   Monitoring climate change over time helps us measure its impacts on our life, however, we need to predict the possible future effects on our lives for proper planning and adaptation.  If our weather is chaotic and difficult to predict as reported by Fuwape and her team, how do we know tomorrow's weather?

Models are abstract representation of real life events.  Using past weather records, scientists have developed models to predict future weather conditions for different regions of the world.  These models use previous patterns and other factors affecting weather to predict future weather conditions.  Predicting future climates will help in quantifying the effect of tomorrow's weather on different aspects of our lives.   Burke and his colleagues tried to determine how future weather conditions will affect agriculture, specifically cereals production, in West Africa using a model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).   The authors concluded that "the majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050."  This means that by 2050, many parts of Africa will have climatic conditions that is different from what they have now and the future climate will not support half what is grown now.   Specifically, only 14% of temperature in African countries that grow maize will be similar to what we are experiencing now.  This is expected to reduce to 3% by the year 2075.  The temperature will be hot such that maize will not be able to grow.   Similar results was obtained for millet and sorghum over Africa.  This portends a problem for agriculture in Africa especially Nigeria where cities have been eating into agricultural farmlands (see report here).

Several attempts have been made by organizations and bodies within Nigeria to draw a plan or strategy for climate change.  Elias and Omojola after examining the plan of Lagos state towards climate change concluded that "these efforts are haphazard, largely top-down, uncoordinated and fragmented."  There is a recent plan by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture towards mitigating climate change which i currently do not have access to.  The authors concluded that "increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond."  There is the need for Federal and State governments to work with Agricultural Scientists, meteorologists and other relevant researchers in academics to work towards a plan.  The plan should include development of a genebank for suitable crops.

References

Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., & Guarino, L. (2009). Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 317–325. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Peter Elias, Ademola Omojola (2015) Case study:  The challenges of climate change for Lagos, Nigeria,  Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 13, April 2015, 74 - 78, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.02.008

 

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo,  S T., Oluyamo,  S S., Rabiu,  A B (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x