Climate change will increase civil conflicts in Subsaharan Africa

The issue of climate change and it's impact on the lives and livelihood of Nigerians is not going away any time soon.  Climate change is an established fact globally.  The effect of climate change on our agricultural products especially grains has been reported on this blog (here and here).  Our weather is not what it used to be.  There were times we look forward to "seven-days" rainfall but it seems we no longer see it.  The harshest of harmattan usually occurs late December but it is common to observe it mid-January these days.  That is climate change.  A report published in May 2017 is suggesting that not only will our maize production be reduced, the number of civil conflicts will increase!

Jun (2017) obtained Maize production data from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and temperature data from both the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).  The trend in all the data use is shown in the figure below.  The analysis was conducted in two phases.  First, maize production was considered to be determined by maize-growing season temperature, the set of country-specific variables, the country fixed effect, the time trend, annual mean temperature and its squared term.      Civil conflicts was then evaluated for when the maize yield was high and compared to when it was low due to temperature. T¯ 

Trends on maize yield, civil conflict incidence, maize-growing season temperature, and annual mean temperature. a and b show annual maize yield and civil conflict incidence, respectively. c shows mean temperature in maize-growing season (solid) and annual mean temperature (dash) in our historical sample. d extends information in c to year 2100 by using mean of the 18 CMIP5 climate model outputs in the period of 2006–2100 (Jun, 2017)

The author did the analysis and the result is alarming.  The author specifically found that the increase in temperature between 1979 and 2012 caused a decrease in maize production.  This is said to cause an increase in civil conflicts.  Future projections indicate that civil conflicts will increase in subsaharan Africa by 33% between 2031 and 2050 and by 100% by 2081 - 3010 compared to what we have in 1981 - 2000. 

Hmm.  We need to start talking to ourselves o!  The impact of climate change on our lives is becoming more alarming.  There is the urgent need to implement mitigation strategies if we do not want to be caught unawares.  What are the ways out?  We need to cut our waste production, increase awareness about our environment, actively and consciously begin to plant trees, recycle our waste, reduce emissions amongst other steps.

References

(1) Jun T. (2017)  "Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa" Climate Change 142(1-2):183 - 197.

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Lagos: Any respite from the floods?

Any story about Nigeria without Lagos is incomplete.  Lagos has a significant role in the past and future of the country.  it is regarded as the commercial nerve centre of the country.  However, the beautiful city of Lagos is not without her own peculiar challenges.  The population of Lagos is on the increase, no thanks to the allure of "gold on the street" sold to rural dwellers.  This growing population is impacting on the existing infrastructure within the city.  In recent times, another challenge is coming to light - flooding.  Being a coastal city, Lagos is prone to heavy rainfall.   Heavy rainfall coupled with improper planning and waste disposal, flooding is becoming pronounced in different parts of the State.  Will the flooding stop any time soon?

Not according to Prof. Abiodun and his colleagues.  According to their report "A decrease in annual precipitation is projected over Cape Town, Maputo and Port Said, whilst an increase is projected over Lagos, where the water surplus from the more extreme precipitation events exceeds the deficit from the less wet days" (Abiodun et al, 2017).  How was this conclusion reached?  The authors used two future climate scenarion (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)  to compute moderate extreme events.  The moderate extreme events computed include the total number of days for which rainfall is greater than 1mm, the total number of days in a year when the rainfall on a given day is above 20 mm and twelve other indices.  This analysis was done for four coastal African cities - Cape Town, Maputo, Port Said and Lagos.  The authors found that the number of wet days in a year in Lagos will reduce but the total precipitation will increase.  This means we will be having fewer rainfall but those rains will be very heavy.  An implication of this is the increase in number of dry days.  This will affect agricultural products at planting and harvesting.  It also means we are going to have hotter days.  Lagos was found to be an exception to most of these results.  

Projected percentage changes in extreme precipitation indices over the four cities (a Cape Town, b Maputo, c Lagos and d Port Said) in the two future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes are calculated with reference to the past climate (1986–2005) and are averaged over the neighbourhood of the city(Abiodun et al, 2017)

What can Lagos State do about these results?  While it can be argued that not much is going on in terms of agriculture in Lagos, the little agriculture we can lay claim to is under threat.  Will the current structural and environmental plan be viable in the future under higher flood? There is no doubt that the Lagos State government has a lot to do in terms of planning.  Recent land reclamation activities along the coastal areas should be reconsidered in light of these results.

Reference

Abiodun, B.J., Adegoke, J., Abatan, A.A. et al. Climatic Change (2017) 143: 399. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2001-5
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Where is my thesis?

For those who have gone through one or two stages of the Nigerian higher educational system, this question will not be strange.  After four or five years of study as an undergraduate, a student is expected to carry out an independent study in his/her field of study.  It is a rigorous, mentally tasking, time consuming and financially demanding task for every student.   Every student is expected to make four copies of the completed thesis - one for the student, one for the supervisor, one for the Department and the last for the University library (this might vary in some institutions).  The researches reported in this theses are supposedly carried out to solve or address specific societal problems.  It is a requirement for graduation from any higher institution in the country.

Let us put this into context. Assuming there are 20 universities in Nigeria.  Also assuming a total of 20 departments each with 50 students are in all the 20 universities.  Based on this assumptions, there are 20,000 thesis being submitted by undergraduates every year.   This implies that there exists 20,000 reports generated annually that directly (or indirectly) addresses various problems in our society.  Where are these theses?  To access any of these theses, you either know the student or the supervisor or apply to the Department or University library.  Yes, currently you cannot sit in your house and access any thesis within the country (except a few universities).

Why is it like this?  Let me give an unofficial explanation.  All thesis (undergraduate and postgraduate) are proprietary materials for the University.  I do not know of any other reason why theses are not online (if you know, kindly provide and i will update this article).  Well, if Federal and State institutions are funded by tax payers money, are the tax payers not entitled to the reports?  Do the institutions refund the students for the expenses incurred during the research work?  Did the student graduate without paying any school fees?  Is the claim to thesis as proprietary works actually valid? 

In my own opinion, academic theses should be readily available online in a variety of format.  One, it will reduce the rate of plagiarism among students as previous theses will be captured online.  Two, the availability of theses online will afford access by policy makers, industry experts and the general public for implementation.  Three, it is in line with best and emerging global trend in education.  Four, it serves as a means of preservation when hard copies of the theses are disposed or recycled (do we recycle?).  Five, it can generate income for the institution (http://ethos.bl.uk/Home.do). Six, will supervisors allow students go away with shoddy research work if their names will be appended to the online work? Methinks it will improve quality of research at all stages.

Where is your thesis?

 

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