Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050

From your observations of the December-January weather over the years, do you think the harmattan is getting stronger, weaker or just the same?  If you can give an answer, then you have witnessed climate change!   According to IPCC, climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.   Monitoring climate change over time helps us measure its impacts on our life, however, we need to predict the possible future effects on our lives for proper planning and adaptation.  If our weather is chaotic and difficult to predict as reported by Fuwape and her team, how do we know tomorrow's weather?

Models are abstract representation of real life events.  Using past weather records, scientists have developed models to predict future weather conditions for different regions of the world.  These models use previous patterns and other factors affecting weather to predict future weather conditions.  Predicting future climates will help in quantifying the effect of tomorrow's weather on different aspects of our lives.   Burke and his colleagues tried to determine how future weather conditions will affect agriculture, specifically cereals production, in West Africa using a model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).   The authors concluded that "the majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050."  This means that by 2050, many parts of Africa will have climatic conditions that is different from what they have now and the future climate will not support half what is grown now.   Specifically, only 14% of temperature in African countries that grow maize will be similar to what we are experiencing now.  This is expected to reduce to 3% by the year 2075.  The temperature will be hot such that maize will not be able to grow.   Similar results was obtained for millet and sorghum over Africa.  This portends a problem for agriculture in Africa especially Nigeria where cities have been eating into agricultural farmlands (see report here).

Several attempts have been made by organizations and bodies within Nigeria to draw a plan or strategy for climate change.  Elias and Omojola after examining the plan of Lagos state towards climate change concluded that "these efforts are haphazard, largely top-down, uncoordinated and fragmented."  There is a recent plan by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture towards mitigating climate change which i currently do not have access to.  The authors concluded that "increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond."  There is the need for Federal and State governments to work with Agricultural Scientists, meteorologists and other relevant researchers in academics to work towards a plan.  The plan should include development of a genebank for suitable crops.

References

Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., & Guarino, L. (2009). Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 317–325. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Peter Elias, Ademola Omojola (2015) Case study:  The challenges of climate change for Lagos, Nigeria,  Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 13, April 2015, 74 - 78, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.02.008

 

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo,  S T., Oluyamo,  S S., Rabiu,  A B (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x

Open Science in Nigeria

 There cannot be meaningful  industrial and national development without access to research data and results from the academia.    The academia acts as incubators of ideas and technology, providing solutions to industrial problems and training of manpower for development.    Technological and national development (or the lack thereof) can be linked to the relationship between the academia and the industry.     Many research data and results are being generated in our academic institutions yearly that can solve pressing and urgent industrial and national problems but the appropriate end users do not know about it or have access to it.     Embracing open science can reduce the gap between the academia and the industry.

Wikipedia defined open science as the movement to make scientific research, data and dissemination accessible to all levels of an inquiring society, amateur or professional.   I will say it the capacity for EVERYONE to see your research, access your data, methods and result and reuse it with appropriate credit.    There are several arguments for and against open science but in my own opinion, open science is the future of publishing.  Open science reduces fraud because it allows for verification of reported results.   Africa and African researchers will benefit as they will have access to research results freely.   I can also say that free things spread very fast.   Noteworthy in the drive for quick and prompt access to quality and reliable government data is the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics led by Dr. Yemi Kale.

Why is open access elusive in developing countries?

There are two publishing models:  (i) author (or sponsor) pays, audience read freely (ii) author does not pay, audience pay to read.  Most publishing houses within the country have no online presence, are not abstracted or indexed anywhere and are profit (not quality) driven.  This is not in favour of researchers who are mandated to publish both locally and internationally.   Basically, authors paying to publish in a journal without online presence are paying for obscurity. In a fast growing technological world such journals are not accessible beyond the local library.   Most local journals adopt the first publishing models.   Recently, international journals are adopting the two publishing models giving the author a choice to choose.   Nigerian authors generally choose the second model when confronted with this choice.  The reason is very clear:  there is no financial support for publishing articles.  The cost of open access is prohibitive, even for the highest cadre in the academics. 

What is the way forward?

Institutions (backed by government policy) should mandate that all published articles by academics within the country be open access or have an open access version.    Thesis (undergraduate and postgraduate) from all academic institutions (monotechnics, polytechnics, and universities) should be archived in a central repository managed by the Nigerian University Commission.      Local journals that can meet international standard with well written ethics and guidelines should be supported financially to embrace open access.  This should be continually monitored for compliance.  The NUC should take on the responsibility of assessing publishing houses where academic researches are published.

Welcome!

Welcome!

After several months of procrastination, i am finally blogging.   There is a void in the academics.  Academics have three core duties: teaching, research and community service.  We work hard at these duties that we sometimes forget our audience.   There is this disconnect between academics and the general public (including government and government agencies).   People do not connect with what is happening in the four walls of a university.  Members of the academics do not help matters in any way as we speak in languages the general public do not comprehend.  The government and its representatives do not know what we are doing and have not shown interest in it.

The main purpose of this blog will be to discuss issues facing academics in Nigeria and Africa as a whole.  I will attempt to discuss research from our institutions in a way that ordinary citizens can understand and correct misconceptions about the academic life.   The various applications and relevant government agencies that can benefit from it will be discussed in a simple, easy to understand way. 

The work of an academic can be tedious sometimes, i will try to be regular with my posts.  If you have any idea, questions, suggestion or willing to write a post, i can be reached via twitter (@ogunjosam) or email (ogunjosam@yahoo.com).

Thank you.

Ogunjo Samuel T.