No good news for African crops under climate change

Climate change came into global focus again as the world, without the United States of America, affirm their readiness to combat it's effect on planet earth.   The effect of climate change will be felt in different dimensions across different countries.  It is going to affect tourism, communication, agriculture, health and economy.  World leaders considered the effect of climate change far greater than any singular economy or cross border politics.  Differences were put aside as all signed the agreement.  I am glad Nigeria signed that agreement.

The effect of climate change has been discussed on this blog under the topic "Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050".   There is the need to revisit this issue as a new research by Challinor and his team has again brought to fore the dangers climate change poses to our agricultural production.  In their research, Challinor et al (2016) examined the implication of global warming on the breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties using five different climate forecast over Africa.  The authors investigated the point at which the time from germination to maturity become significantly different from what we have currently now.  From their results, the impact of heat stress was significant.  From Figure 1, the RCP 8.5 data predicts that the effect is upon us faster than we think.

Time at which the climate change signal for crop duration is detected. The specified year refers to the midpoint of the 20-year period in which the median crop duration falls below the 25th quantile of the baseline period (1995–2014). Grey cells indicate that the crop duration remains within the 25th–75th quantile until at least 2038—the latest possible delivery date for a BDA cycle beginning in 2004 (see Table 1).

Our focus as an agrarian nation has to move from the challenges of bad roads, access to markets, fertilizers, irrigation that has been plaguing us for ages into developing seeds and methods that will beat the effect of climate change. Any strategic plan for sustainable agriculture in Nigeria that does not consider climate adaptation strategies such as novel seeds cannot stand the test of time.  The best time to start the process is now!

References

[1] A. J. Challinor, A.-K. Koehler, J. Ramirez-Villegas, S. Whitfield, and B. Das, “Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 954–958, 2016.

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Beyond the dangers of EM waves to humans

Do not put mobile phones in your pockets, the radiation can affect your organs!  

Do not use mobile phones near gas stations or gas stoves, it can cause fire hazard!! 

These and other warnings have been spreading through social media in recent times.  In light of growing use of mobile devices and other gadgets that uses electromagnetic (EM) waves, these warnings tend to be disturbing.   While there is no general consensus in the scientific community on the effect of mobile phones on humans, we need to look beyond ourselves to other animals that can and could be affected by their use.  

Ogunjo et al (2013) took up this challenge and investigated the effect of electromagnetic waves on earthworms.   Earthworms have been reported to play an important role in our ecology (Sarojini, 2007).  Their importance can be seen in the aeration of the soil and influencing soil fertility through decay of leaves.  Hence, any threat to their existence affects us all.

In the study by Ogunjo et al (2013),  studied the effect of two different frequencies (42 kHz and 36 kHz) on earthworms over a period of nine (9) days.  The masses of the earthworms were monitored throughout the experiment.    Furthermore, strong negative correlation and rate of decrease in mass was reported for earthworms under the influence of electromagnetic waves which did not reflect in the control experiment.

From the experiment, the earthworms show a significant reduction in mass for the period under investigation at both frequencies.  Can this be true?  Yes, a control experiment conducted under the same environment but without the frequencies shows an increase in mass of the earthworms!  There is the urgent need for scientists to take this study further.  Frequencies used in this study was low, what will be the effect of higher frequencies on earthworms?  Ants and other smaller animals of significant economic importance needs to be studied also.  Can these method be used to control or eradicate dangerous animals and pests?  Results from these advanced studies should guide relevant organizations and government bodies in making regulations that will safe guard the lives and livelihoods of citizens.

Full text of the paper can be found here

References

Ogunjo S. T., Williams A. O., Egbuonu F . O., Adedayo K. D., (2013) “Effects of electromagnetic field on mass of earthworms.”  Envirotropica, 10, 37 – 44, August, 2013

Sarojini T.R. (2007). Modern Biology for Senior Secondary Schools. Africana First
Publisher, Onitsha, Nigeria. 2007.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Women in STEM: An Endangered Specie in Nigeria

There is a dearth of in-depth data when it comes to matters of women in Nigeria.  Where and when the data is available, it does not portray a beautiful picture.     According to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics [1], the number of male students enrolled in formal education increased from 20 million students in 2010 to over 30 million (an increase of about 11 million) while the number of female students enrolled in formal education remained in the 5 million range with a marginal increase of 4.13%.    The number of these female students enrolled in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) according to JAMB data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics is not encouraging.  From the report, the number of female students enrolled in the Faculties of Science and Engineering in Universities across the country is very low when compared to the number of their male counterparts in the same faculties [2].  Female students, from the same report, seems to register for non-STEM courses.  The situation does not change in the choice of career after graduation.  Presenting the Country's report to the 5th International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP) conference in Waterloo, Canada, Prof.(Mrs.) Fuwape, noted an increase in the number of women enrolled in Physics over the years.  However, over a seven year period, the percentage of women enrolled in the course was below 25% [3].  Figure 1 shows the gender statistics in selected academic institutions across the country.

Fig 1: Statistics of some department of physics academic positions

Why do we have few women in STEM?  The challenges facing women in Nigeria are multifaceted.  There is the issue of religion which does not give mixing of gender in public settings.  Some societies see women as "limited/incapacitated", hence, the reluctance to educate young girls.  Williams J. C. [4] listed five biases pushing women out of STEM to include: Prove-it-again, Tightrope,  the maternal wall, tug of war and isolation bias.    There is also the general believe that certain STEM disciplines are in the male territory and difficult for ladies.  

What can be done to increase female participants in STEM?  The campaign to increase female participation in STEM should begin from the young minds.    Stakeholders in the education sector should look into some of our teaching methods and techniques that tends to favour male students.  There is no better time than now to address our methods in STEM subjects.  The mindset that classified some disciplines as difficult and strictly for male students can be addressed by regular interaction with the industry and professionals in the field.     

The role of advocacy organizations and relevant ministries in this issue cannot be overemphasized.  The Organization for Women in Science for the Developing World has been contributing towards reducing the gender gap in education through the introduction of various mentoring programmes, research grants, awards and fellowships for females in developing countries.  Also, the Nigerian Women in Physics has been organizing programmes to improve the participation of females in the field of Physics.   At the 39th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Institute of Physics, the Country head, Prof.(Mrs) I. A. Fuwape, highlighted some of the plans of the organization for increased female participation in the subject to include:

•  giving recognition to women who demonstrate outstanding scientific achievements
• organize programmes to popularize Physics among secondary school girls
• mentor more ladies and women into Physics in order to bridge the gap and encourage them to stay there.

However, the role the Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and the various state ministries of education and ministries in improving the number of girls coming into STEM cannot be established from their sites [5,6].

References

[1]    National Bureau of Statistics: Nigerian Formal Education Sector  - Summary Report  (2010 - 2012) http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/report/271

[2]      National Bureau of Statistics: JAMB admitted candidates by state and gender within Faculty   http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/report/517

[3]     Fuwape, I. A., Rabiu, A. B. and Ogunjo, S. T. (2015), Women in physics in Nigeria: Status, actions, and progress (2011–2014), AIP Conference Proceedings, 1697, 060034.  http://aip.scitation.org/doi/abs/10.1063/1.4937681

 [4]      William J. C.  The five biases pushing women out of STEM.  https://hbr.org/2015/03/the-5-biases-pushing-women-out-of-stem

[5]      http://www.womenaffairs.gov.ng/

[6]      http://wapa.lagosstate.gov.ng/

Is there an heightened radioactive risk in Kogi State?

You have heard of the "atomic bomb" and its powers.  It is the general believe that at inauguration, every president of the United State is given access to the nuclear codes that can "destroy" any country.  Well, that is not the only way we are exposed to radionuclides as humans .  We are also exposed to cosmic radiation and terrestrial radiation.  Terrestrial radiation have been reported to vary according to location, soil type and activities carried out at a particular location. 

What is this "nuclear" or "atomic" bomb?  There is this "football" we make as kids.  Our toy involves pieces of balloons together.  We always have a solid "ball" at the beginning but our "ball" begins to fall apart as it gets larger.    Elements with relatively number of small electrons are stable but as the number of electrons get larger, the elements become unstable.  There are elements that are naturally unstable such that they disintegrate on their own or when "stimulated".  These elements are called radioactive elements.  Radioactive elements are useful in several areas such as treatment of cancer, etc.   Exposure to radionuclides above recommended values can pose great danger to people living in that area.

Dr(Mrs) Usikalu and her collaborators, with support from the Centre for Atmospheric Research, CAR, National Space Research and Development Agency, undertook to study the radioactive risks in Kogi State, Nigeria.  They studied three (3) radionuclides ²³²Th, ²³⁸U and ⁴⁰K because they have long half lives.  Two hundred (200) soil samples were taken from different areas of the State, processed using international best standards and analyzed using an Hyper Pure Germanium detector. From their results, the authors reported that

The radiological parameters estimated for most of the locations compared well with world average values, except for Odogba-okaba, Salem University, Forest, Nepa, Gerugu, Niger Bridge, Igaliwu, Ijeke-ogane, Bagana, and Abegikolo villages, whose values exceeded the recommended limit.

To get an overview of the health implication of the results obtained, the effect of radiation on the sensitive body cells such as bone marrow, gonads, skin i.e. gonadal equivalent dose was computed.  It was observed that "nearly all the villages have AG values higher than the recommended limit, with highest value obtained in Igaliwu Omala area. The high concentration may be as a result of the presence of monazite in the area and exploitation of coal and limestone in the area. This could pose a threat to sensitive cells like gonads and bone marrow in the dwellers and workers in these areas."

Spatial maps of radiological parameters for Ajaokuta LGA

There is the urgent need for the Kogi State government, if the interest and well-being of the citizen is important to them, to check the mining activities in the area.  There is also the urgent need to investigate the radionuclide risks in food and water consumed by indigenes of the state. 

References

M. R. Usikalu, I. A. Fuwape, S. S. Jatto, O. F. Awe, A. B. Rabiu & J. A. Achuka (2017) Assessment of radiological parameters of soil in Kogi State, Nigeria. Environmental Forensics, 18:1, 1-14 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15275922.2016.1263898

Is Solar energy predictable?

If you start a journey from point A at time T₁ and get to point B at time T_n. We say the "system" is linear if the arrival time is a function of the start time e.g. If you start at T₁₊₁, you get there at time T_n+1 or generally, if you start at T_a+1 you arrive at T_n+a.    Not all journey are smooth, there might be delay due to traffic and other unforeseen circumstances.  Let's call the addition of all possible delay on the route d.  If you take off  at time T₁, your arrival time due to delay on the route will be T_n+d.   We refer to this "system" as a stochastic system.     However, if the arrival time cannot be predicted based on the take off time T₁ due to conditions around the starting conditions, we say the "system" is chaotic.  Long term prediction of chaotic system is not possible.  Chaos in this case does not mean random or disorder but sensitivity to initial starting conditions.

Chaos is aperiodic time-asymptotic behaviour in a deterministic system which exhibits sensitive dependence on initial conditions (http://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/329/lectures/node57.html).

 

Initially, studying chaos was limited to complicated differential equations but in recent times, natural phenomena has been investigated for chaos.   Many systems such as menstrual period (Derry and Derry, 2010), rainfall (Sivakumar, 2001), temperature (Fuwape et al, 2015), stock market (Fuwape and Ogunjo, 2013) have been found to be chaotic.  To investigate chaos, tools such as correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and other tools have been developed.  Is chaos good or bad?  This will be the subject of another post.  In light of current agitation for use of renewable energy instead of fossil fuels, there is the need to study the predictability of the proposed energy systems.  

Ogunjo, Adediji and Dada from the Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Akure investigated if solar radiation available at Akure, Southwestern Nigeria for a period of two years.   The researchers found that the solar radiation at Akure during the dry season is more chaotic than during the wet season.  This means that it is easier to predict the solar energy available in the location during the wet season than during the wet season of the year.  

Figure 1:  Phase space reconstruction of solar radiation data from Akure  (Source:  Ogunjo et al. 2014)

The Nigerian government is currently on a drive to provide off-grid power based on solar energy. From the results presented by the researchers, it is imperative that the chaotic nature of solar energy over Nigeria be investigated and taken into consideration before large scale deployment.  There is the need to further study the variation of incident solar radiation in different parts of the country for the most cost effective and reliable solar energy solution.  For instance, further studies will give insight into the feasibility of combining solar energy with wind or other forms of energy for better reliability.  Also, the possibility of solar panels that can track the rising and setting of the sun need to be investigated.

References

Derry, G., & Derry, P. (2010). Characterization of chaotic dynamics in the human menstrual cycle. Nonlinear Biomedical Physics, 4(1), 5. http://doi.org/10.1186/1753-4631-4-5

Fuwape, I. I. A., & Ogunjo, S. T. (2013). Investigating Chaos in the Nigerian Asset and Resource Management (ARM) Discovery Fund. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4(2), 129–140. article.

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo, · S T, Oluyamo, · S S, Rabiu, · A B,  (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x

Ogunjo, S. T., Adediji, A. T., & Dada, J. B. (2015). Investigating chaotic features in solar radiation over a tropical station using recurrence quantification analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1642-4

Sivakumar, B. (2001). Is a chaotic multi-fractal approach for rainfall possible? Hydrological Processes, 15(6), 943–955. http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.260

Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050

From your observations of the December-January weather over the years, do you think the harmattan is getting stronger, weaker or just the same?  If you can give an answer, then you have witnessed climate change!   According to IPCC, climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.   Monitoring climate change over time helps us measure its impacts on our life, however, we need to predict the possible future effects on our lives for proper planning and adaptation.  If our weather is chaotic and difficult to predict as reported by Fuwape and her team, how do we know tomorrow's weather?

Models are abstract representation of real life events.  Using past weather records, scientists have developed models to predict future weather conditions for different regions of the world.  These models use previous patterns and other factors affecting weather to predict future weather conditions.  Predicting future climates will help in quantifying the effect of tomorrow's weather on different aspects of our lives.   Burke and his colleagues tried to determine how future weather conditions will affect agriculture, specifically cereals production, in West Africa using a model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).   The authors concluded that "the majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050."  This means that by 2050, many parts of Africa will have climatic conditions that is different from what they have now and the future climate will not support half what is grown now.   Specifically, only 14% of temperature in African countries that grow maize will be similar to what we are experiencing now.  This is expected to reduce to 3% by the year 2075.  The temperature will be hot such that maize will not be able to grow.   Similar results was obtained for millet and sorghum over Africa.  This portends a problem for agriculture in Africa especially Nigeria where cities have been eating into agricultural farmlands (see report here).

Several attempts have been made by organizations and bodies within Nigeria to draw a plan or strategy for climate change.  Elias and Omojola after examining the plan of Lagos state towards climate change concluded that "these efforts are haphazard, largely top-down, uncoordinated and fragmented."  There is a recent plan by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture towards mitigating climate change which i currently do not have access to.  The authors concluded that "increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond."  There is the need for Federal and State governments to work with Agricultural Scientists, meteorologists and other relevant researchers in academics to work towards a plan.  The plan should include development of a genebank for suitable crops.

References

Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., & Guarino, L. (2009). Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 317–325. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Peter Elias, Ademola Omojola (2015) Case study:  The challenges of climate change for Lagos, Nigeria,  Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 13, April 2015, 74 - 78, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.02.008

 

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo,  S T., Oluyamo,  S S., Rabiu,  A B (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x

Open Science in Nigeria

 There cannot be meaningful  industrial and national development without access to research data and results from the academia.    The academia acts as incubators of ideas and technology, providing solutions to industrial problems and training of manpower for development.    Technological and national development (or the lack thereof) can be linked to the relationship between the academia and the industry.     Many research data and results are being generated in our academic institutions yearly that can solve pressing and urgent industrial and national problems but the appropriate end users do not know about it or have access to it.     Embracing open science can reduce the gap between the academia and the industry.

Wikipedia defined open science as the movement to make scientific research, data and dissemination accessible to all levels of an inquiring society, amateur or professional.   I will say it the capacity for EVERYONE to see your research, access your data, methods and result and reuse it with appropriate credit.    There are several arguments for and against open science but in my own opinion, open science is the future of publishing.  Open science reduces fraud because it allows for verification of reported results.   Africa and African researchers will benefit as they will have access to research results freely.   I can also say that free things spread very fast.   Noteworthy in the drive for quick and prompt access to quality and reliable government data is the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics led by Dr. Yemi Kale.

Why is open access elusive in developing countries?

There are two publishing models:  (i) author (or sponsor) pays, audience read freely (ii) author does not pay, audience pay to read.  Most publishing houses within the country have no online presence, are not abstracted or indexed anywhere and are profit (not quality) driven.  This is not in favour of researchers who are mandated to publish both locally and internationally.   Basically, authors paying to publish in a journal without online presence are paying for obscurity. In a fast growing technological world such journals are not accessible beyond the local library.   Most local journals adopt the first publishing models.   Recently, international journals are adopting the two publishing models giving the author a choice to choose.   Nigerian authors generally choose the second model when confronted with this choice.  The reason is very clear:  there is no financial support for publishing articles.  The cost of open access is prohibitive, even for the highest cadre in the academics. 

What is the way forward?

Institutions (backed by government policy) should mandate that all published articles by academics within the country be open access or have an open access version.    Thesis (undergraduate and postgraduate) from all academic institutions (monotechnics, polytechnics, and universities) should be archived in a central repository managed by the Nigerian University Commission.      Local journals that can meet international standard with well written ethics and guidelines should be supported financially to embrace open access.  This should be continually monitored for compliance.  The NUC should take on the responsibility of assessing publishing houses where academic researches are published.

Welcome!

Welcome!

After several months of procrastination, i am finally blogging.   There is a void in the academics.  Academics have three core duties: teaching, research and community service.  We work hard at these duties that we sometimes forget our audience.   There is this disconnect between academics and the general public (including government and government agencies).   People do not connect with what is happening in the four walls of a university.  Members of the academics do not help matters in any way as we speak in languages the general public do not comprehend.  The government and its representatives do not know what we are doing and have not shown interest in it.

The main purpose of this blog will be to discuss issues facing academics in Nigeria and Africa as a whole.  I will attempt to discuss research from our institutions in a way that ordinary citizens can understand and correct misconceptions about the academic life.   The various applications and relevant government agencies that can benefit from it will be discussed in a simple, easy to understand way. 

The work of an academic can be tedious sometimes, i will try to be regular with my posts.  If you have any idea, questions, suggestion or willing to write a post, i can be reached via twitter (@ogunjosam) or email (ogunjosam@yahoo.com).

Thank you.

Ogunjo Samuel T.